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Archive for March, 2007

Economy Solid Despite Housing Slowdown and Foreclosure Activity

Saturday, March 31st, 2007

March 31, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – Consumer spending in the United States rose substantially in February and economists see this as a sign that the economy is in good shape despite a few lingering aches and pains.  Analysts were surprised as consumer spending rose .6%, which was nearly twice what had been expected.

The Commerce Department indicated that personal income rose by .6% as well.  This figure was also double what many analysts expected.

Spending on construction rose also by almost .3% in February.  This number had been declining or steady since March of 2006.  This figure reflected primarily commercial construction projects such as state and local government buildings, shopping center projects, and hotels.

Home construction on the other hand continued its long string of declining figures.

Foreclosure expert, Patrick McGilvray, J.D., CFP®, president of http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com commented on this phenomenon, “it looks like our overall economy has a very solid foundation, but my company is getting increased numbers of calls from people who want to sell their houses fast to avoid being foreclosed on.  The single-family home sector, especially homeowners with subprime mortgages, is suffering from too much supply and not enough demand.”

Analysts still are looking for the economy to slow down in the first quarter of 2007, and then they anticipate a rebound in the second quarter.

The Fed on Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reported to Congress this past week that inflation continued to be the central bank’s main concern.  He also mentioned that risks to overall economic growth have emerged.  Because of this he noted that he and the other Federal Reserve regulators might soon lower interest rates to help prevent a stall in the economy.

Bernanke mentioned that the prolonged housing downturn and a slowing economy might preclude businesses from making investments and that growth was a major part of his focus.

Adjustable rate mortgages part of foreclosure crisis

Saturday, March 31st, 2007

Teaser rates start out low then increase dramatically. 200,000 Ohio families could be affected in 2007-08.

They’re called teaser rates and they could make Ohio’s mortgage foreclosure crisis even worse in coming years.

The loans are for adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) with low, fixed interest rates for the first two or three years. After that initial period, the rates increase, as often as every six months, so that monthly mortgage payments grow dramatically, according to a report released Thursday by the Coalition for Homelessness and Housing in Ohio.

According to the report, $14 billion in ARM “teaser rate” loans will be reset in Ohio this year and in 2008, likely creating an increase in foreclosures and affecting at least 200,000 families.

Even before this anticipated surge, Ohio nationally has the second highest rate of loans in “serious delinquency” — either in foreclosure or more than 90 days late. Ohio’s 5.12 percent rate is behind only Mississippi, 5.3 percent, and just ahead of third place Louisiana, 4.98 percent, two states devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

“The coming foreclosure crisis hitting Ohio is on the scale of Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf Coast, except it is happening silently, one foreclosure at a time,” Bill Faith, executive director of the homelessness coalition, said in a press release.

The “teaser rates” are only part of the problem, the report said.

Inflated appraisals and high loan-to-value mortgages have increased debt problems. In 2006, 24 percent of ARM borrowers getting new loans owed more than the value of their home at the loan’s origination, according to the report.

The study expands on a report issued earlier this week by Policy Matters Ohio, a Cleveland-based research institute, that showed foreclosure filings jumped by nearly a quarter last year in Ohio, the largest increase in recent history.

The number of filings in 2006 — 79,000 — marked an almost fivefold increase over 2005. Warren County had the sharpest increase among eight counties in the Dayton region, with foreclosure filings increasing more than ninefold since 1995.

The Policy Matters report also showed that Montgomery County had the second highest foreclosure filing rate last year — 9.4 per 1,000 people — behind only Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

What to do if you’re facing foreclosure

Friday, March 30th, 2007

If you’re behind on your mortgage or facing foreclosure, contact your mortgage company first to see whether a new payment plan can be worked out or the loan can be refinanced. If that doesn’t work, consider selling the house or contacting a credible housing counselor.Housing counselors approved by the Department of Housing and Urban Development can be found at http://www.hud.gov

ACORN Housing offers a Home Equity Loss Prevention program with mortgage-delinquency counselors who can intervene to help homeowners who face foreclosures.

If you’re trying to avoid foreclosure, stay away from advertisements, mailings, billboards, fliers and visitors offering to help you save your home at terms that sound too good to be true. The arrangements often wipe out hard-earned equity and only delay foreclosure proceedings.

Be especially leery of people who offer help but discourage you from contacting your mortgage company or attorney; likewise real estate agents and mortgage brokers who try to get you to sign documents under pressure or without fully explaining what they are.

The Federal Trade Commission advises avoiding lenders who:

_Ask you to sign blank forms that they fill in later.

_Won’t provide copies of documents.

_Tell you it’s not important to read the contract fine print.

_Promise certain terms when you apply but provide a different set of documents to sign with no valid explanation.

Experts suggest that an attorney or a credible financial or real estate professional review documents before you sign them.

If you think you’ve been victimized by a foreclosure-rescue scam, contact your state’s financial regulatory agency. For a list of agencies that can take administrative action, go to http://www.fraudproblem.com/where-to-complain.

Your state attorney general’s office also can conduct a criminal investigation. For a list of state attorney general’s offices, go to the National Association of Attorneys General at www.naag.org.

Private attorneys can file civil suits against suspected scam artists, but the investigations are long and complicated and many lawyers won’t take the cases. The National Association of Consumer Advocates lists lawyers in each state who specialize in consumer-fraud cases. They can be reached at http://www.naca.net.

Local Legal Services offices can assist those who can’t afford lawyers. For a listing of state offices, go to http://www.lsc.gov.

For information on how to avoid foreclosure, go to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Web site, at http://www.hud.gov/foreclosure.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Top 10 States - Highest Rates of Inability to Avoid Foreclosure

Thursday, March 29th, 2007

SACRAMENTO, CA - Nevada, Colorado, and Florida are leading the nation in an unfortunate statistic:  highest foreclosure rates.  Florida averages currently one in each 382 homes.

Across the nation people are feeling the crunch to make mortgage payments on houses that have gone down in value or that have only appreciated modestly.  Rouding out the rest of the Top 10 are Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Texas, Arizona and Indiana.
Nevada actually surpasses Florida with one in each 278 homes, greater than triple the national average.

The U.S. rate is one in each 884 homes.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Housing Market of Cards

Thursday, March 29th, 2007

Subprime loans are, by definition, risky business. They target home buyers with poor credit records or without cash for a down-payment, often luring in borrowers with lowball introductory interest rates that morph into more robust charges years down the road. If a lender can properly assess default risk—and tolerate quite a lot of it—subprime loans can turn a neat profit. They also provide entrée into homeownership to consumers once frozen out of the market. This win-win situation works so long as each side knows what it’s getting into. But where lenders or borrowers—or both—get carried away, trouble looms. For evidence, look no further than the United States, where an overeager subprime market (TIME) rapidly devolved into a fiasco.

Across America, risky mortgages are going up in smoke. U.S. mortgage foreclosure filings sky-rocketed (Bloomberg) 12 percent last month, and at least thirty subprime lending firms failed this year. New Century Financial, formerly the second-largest subprime outfit in the United States, is the most glaring cautionary tale (MarketWatch)—the company is now auctioning assets in what many analysts view as a precursor to imminent bankruptcy. For global lenders, many of which are less active than their U.S. counterparts in subprime lending, the fate of New Century and other struggling American firms is a cautionary tale.

No single factor caused the subprime meltdown. Borrowers, of course, should theoretically shun loans they cannot possibly repay. In one notorious case highlighted in the Economist, a twenty-four-year-old in Sacramento bought seven houses in five months, never paying so much as a down payment—and now faces $2.2 million in debt. Lenders also shoulder blame for cavalierly offering loans to unqualified borrowers. In good times, unsustainable loans still turned a profit (MSNBC); the lenders reaped short-term fees and quickly sold the loans to investment banks which chopped them up, repackaged them, and flipped the debt to hedge funds and institutional investors. Now the gravy-train is derailing, and as CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby argues in the Washington Post the investment banks could be exposed as the real scoundrels of the subprime blowup. The banking giants “bamboozled ratings agencies into assigning misleadingly high credit scores to some mortgage-backed bonds,” Mallaby says. This enabled them to pawn off bad debt, disguised as good debt, to unwitting investors.

How far will the damage extend? Bloomberg, in the article cited above, says subprime housing-loan woes could spill over into the auto-loan industry, where highly speculative loans are also prevalent. The issue has global ramifications as well: In late February, subprime concerns sent stock markets tumbling on fears of a U.S. economic slowdown. Even though subprime loans aren’t nearly as common internationally as they are in America, a U.S. credit crunch could still suck liquidity out of global financial markets. Testifying before Congress on March 28, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the subprime issue thus far has had only minimal effects (Reuters) on the broader U.S. economy. But some factors remain unknown. Perhaps the most frightening question is what happened to all that bad debt the investment banks pawned off. Hedge funds, the Financial Times’ Gillian Tett points out, are often masters at using tricky paperwork to cover up their losses. But somewhere, somebody is taking a heavy hit right now. Tett wonders: “Where are the bodies buried?”

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Fed Chief Bernanke Downplays Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Wednesday, March 28th, 2007


March 28, 2007

WASHINGTON – Chairman Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve said to Congress that the recent crisis in the subprime mortgage industry is merely “moderate” in a big picture sense.  His comments were echoed by Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, Henry Paulson who said the situation “appears to be contained.”

Mr. Paulson indicated that he believed that the residential housing market downturn was at or near its bottom.  In testimony to Congress, Paulson said, “from the standpoint of the overall economy, my bottom line is we’re watching it closely but it appears to be contained.”  He did reserve what he called “grave concern” for many American homeowners who will be negatively impacted by the resetting of their subprime adjustable rate mortgages.

Mr. Bernanke added that he thinks the recent tightening of credit standards in the subprime mortgage market will be a good thing overall.  He is focused on watching the housing market through the spring to help himself decide which direction the Fed will move in with respect to interest rates.

The stock market has been punishing the builders of homes in recent weeks partly as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis.  Since the beginning of February 2007 the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction index is down by 20 percent.  Standard Pacific Corp. was down 5 percent, Centex down 4.3 percent, and Beazer was down by 10 percent.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Florida, Third-Highest Foreclosure Rate In US

Wednesday, March 28th, 2007

In February, Florida had a disappointment statistic when it showed 19,144 filings in February from a month earlier; that was the highest among all states. This now placed Florida with the third-highest foreclosure rate in the country, averaging one for every 382 households.

Nevada, Colorado, Florida continue to post the top foreclosure rates in the nation.

Nevada registered the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 278 households — more than three times the national average.

Nationally auction sale notices and bank repossessions, and it showed a 12 percent increase last month over January, showing a national foreclosure rate of one filing for every 884 U.S. households.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Texas, Arizona and Indiana.
http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Legislators call for new foreclosure measures

Tuesday, March 27th, 2007

State regulators, lawmakers, and community groups expressed broad support for legislation to stem the tide of foreclosures of home mortgages.

“This is a crisis in Massachusetts, a crisis created by the proliferation of subprime loans,” said state Senator Jarrett Barrios, a Democrat who represents districts from Cambridge to Revere. Subprime loans are high-interest mortgages offered to borrowers with credit problems.

Barrios is the sponsor of one of several bills in the Legislature to grapple with the state’s rising foreclosure filings, which hit a record of nearly 20,000 in 2006. His bill would provide counseling to homebuyers and foreclosure relief to those already having difficulty paying their loans, and would crack down on regulation of subprime lenders. To prevent some foreclosures, he also proposed giving borrowers 30 days to catch up on loan payments when they fall behind, a time period one community activist said was too short.

Numerous stories of troubled borrowers were retold. Barrios said an elderly resident in Cambridge’s Huron Village neighborhood signed a loan, even though she had Alzheimer’s disease and was “unaware what was going on.” A Chelsea resident took out a refinancing loan with a 16 percent interest rate cap, he said.

Isabel Frias, a former homeowner and single mother of three, said she lost her life savings when lenders foreclosed on her two-family home in Lawrence, which cost $340,000. At the loan closing, she told the committee her mortgage payment would be $1,000 higher than she had been promised.

When asked why she signed the loan, she said, the broker said “if she changed her mind she would lose her downpayment, a life savings of $12,000,” Frias, who speaks only Spanish, explained through a translator.

“These are documented cases, and it’s completely unregulated,” Barrios told the chairs of the Joint House and Senate Committee on Housing, Democratic Senator Susan Tucker of Andover and Democratic Representative Kevin Honan of Allston-Brighton.

Tina Brooks, undersecretary of the Massachusetts Department of Housing and Community Development, said that the subprime problem is most acute in the African-American and Latino neighborhoods where loans are “unaffordable and a recipe for foreclosure.” She urged legislation be passed to provide assistance “for those victimized by abuse.”
http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

 

SACRAMENTO: California asked to fix laws to protect mortgage borrowers

Monday, March 26th, 2007

More than 450,000 California homeowners could lose their homes through foreclosure because they can’t afford payments on risky subprime mortgages, a consumer advocate told state lawmakers Monday in Sacramento.Regulators should strengthen mortgage laws to tighten underwriting standards and help borrowers in trouble with loans they should have never taken out, Paul Leonard, California director of the Center for Responsible Lending, said at a hearing of the state senate’s banking, finance and insurance committee.

California leads the nation with more than 833,000 outstanding subprime loans, 22 percent of the U.S. total, according to data from First American LoanPerformance.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

U.S. Senator Assails Subprime Mortgage Lenders and Regulators

Sunday, March 25th, 2007


March 25, 2007

NEW YORK – At the Senate Banking Committee hearings last week in Washington, D.C. Senator Robert Menendez (D)-NJ said that black and Hispanic homeowners will be hurt disproportionately by the crisis occurring in the subprime mortgage industry.  “What we’re looking at is a tsunami of foreclosures that is on the horizon,” said the Democrat from New Jersey.

Congress is under pressure to act to help deal with fallout that has seen lenders close their doors and homeowners default on their mortgage payments in staggering numbers.  Many people in predominantly minority communities say that subprime lenders targeted vulnerable consumers in their areas and provided home loan products that were confusing at best and misleading at worst,

Executives from some leading companies who specialized in providing loans to people with imperfect, and in some cases poor, credit histories testified on Thursday.  The Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Christopher Dodd (D)-CT, described what he called a “chronology of regulatory neglect.”  Dodd blamed regulators as well as industry for the current situation.

“Our nation’s financial regulators were supposed to be the cops on the beat, protecting hardworking Americans from unscrupulous financial actors,” said Sen. Dodd “They were spectators for far too long.”

Roger Cole, in charge of the banking supervision department at the Federal Reserve, while being grilled by Dodd, had this to say, “I will say that given what we know now, yes, we could have done more sooner.”  Cole promised that he would start a process at the Fed that might result in broader federal rules concerning mortgage lending practices and standards.

“It’s not regulation that is the real problem here.  What is the real problem is an inconsistent patchwork of regulation with standards imposed by the federal government and by the individual states,” said Patrick McGilvray, J.D., a foreclosure expert and President of http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com.

Senator Dodd promised further action to help the nation deal with the rise in foreclosures, loan default, and the collapse of lending institutions across the nation.  He plans to soon gather a number of regulators, consumer activist groups, mortgage lenders, legislators, and others to create a solution for suffering homeowners.

Subprime Mortgage Foreclosure Woes Scrutinized By U.S. Senate

Thursday, March 22nd, 2007


March 22, 2007

WASHINGTON - At the Senate Banking Committee hearings on Thursday officials downplayed the potential spread of problems in the subprime mortgage sector.  One official, Roger Cole, Director of the Federal Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation told the committee that he thought the deterioration in the housing market would stay limited to the subprime sector.

“We are not observing spillover effects from the problems in the subprime market to the traditional mortgage portfolios or…to the safety and soundness of the banking system,” said Cole.

Subprime mortgages, which became widely popular in the U.S. mortgage market in recent years, are primarily used by people with poor credit histories or people who wanted to buy a larger house than they might be able to afford under more conservative lending guidelines.

One of the largest of the lending institutions which sold these types of loans, Countrywide, said that they thought that loans made in 2006 would turn out to have the highest rate of foreclosures in the company’s history.  Countrywide’s Executive Managing Director, Sandor Samuels, said 2006 could be worse than the year 2000, “for which the cumulative foreclosure rate was 9.89 percent.”

The Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Connecticut’s Senator Christopher Dodd (D) informed those present at the hearing he called that he plans to create legislation to prevent consumers from falling victim to predatory lending, but he thought the broader solution to the crisis might not be a legislative one.  “Instead, I would seek to ask leaders…to come together and try to work out an efficient process providing some relief for these homeowners who will be caught in this bind,” Dodd said.

Foreclosure expert, Patrick McGilvray, J.D., President of California-based http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com commented, “I believe that overall a market-driven solution is in the best interest of the nation, yet there is still a role for governmental regulators to ensure our banking system is not abused by irresponsible lenders.”  Mr. McGilvray’s company matches people that need to sell their homes with real estate investors and first-time home buyers across the United States.

In other developments the nation’s 5th biggest home building company, KB Home cautioned that higher rates of foreclosure could lengthen the downturn in the housing sector.  The CEO of the company said that more stringent lending requirements for new borrowers and high default rates on existing loans could forestall any recovery in the sector.

New Mortgage Standards Could Prolong U.S. Housing Crisis

Wednesday, March 21st, 2007

March 21, 2007

SACRAMENTO, CA  — As the housing market downturn in California and across the country continues lenders are reexamining their lending policies and making loans less available than they were in years past.  This effect is lauded by many economic observers, but may result in a reduction of buyers which could lead to an even greater supply of homes on the market.

In the greater Sacramento region lenders began the processing of foreclosing on homes for non-payment of mortgages at a 239% higher rate in 2006 as compared to 2005.  According to Patrick McGilvray, J.D., President of Sacramento-based http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, “Our region saw homes skyrocket in value between 2000 and 2005 and many, many new homes were built.  We’re still dealing with a glut of houses available for sale.”  Mr. McGilvray added, “this [situation] could last for years, but I am optimistic about the long-term health of California’s housing market.”

Economists will tell you that when supply outstrips demand then prices of a given commodity, houses in this example, will fall.  In this environment, the moves by politicians and lenders to restrict prospective homeowners from easily obtaining loans will likely continue the stagnation and decline in the California residential real estate market.

The prospective home purchasers in question in recent years were able to buy homes because of the ability to qualify for so-called subprime mortgages.  These products were sometimes the only way to get money to buy a home for people in the process of repairing their credit status.

Congressional hearings, run by Senator Christopher (D)-Connecticut are investigating the subprime mortgage market industry’s practices tomorrow in Washington, D.C.  The industry, in addition to lax underwriting practices, is accused of predatory lending practices, among other things, that have had a disproportionate effect on minority purchasers.

Consumer advocates have alleged discriminatory practices among lenders in recent years and have complained that many African-American and Latino homebuyers have been sold inappropriate products that were not fully explained.  Many of these people were first-time homebuyers and were sold mortgages with dramatically higher costs than white purchasers even with identical financial backgrounds.

According to real estate tracking service RealtyTrac up to 1.5 million homeowners will face foreclosure in 2007.

In Danger of Foreclosure? Beware of Predatory Lenders

Wednesday, March 21st, 2007

Millions of American homeowners are at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure because they signed up for adjustable rate mortgages they can no longer afford.

If you are one of them, it may be possible to refinance to save your home. But you should know predatory lenders are waiting to pounce on you in your hour of desperation. Sounds melodramatic, but it’s true.

If buying a home is the American dream, then predatory lending is the American nightmare. Predatory lending typically occurs in refinancing deals. Unscrupulous lenders cause people to lose their homes and neighborhoods to lose their luster. Aggressive mortgage brokers target the poor, the elderly, minorities and women, but it can happen to anyone.

Charles K. is a combat veteran who lives on a fixed income. He was a month or two behind on his mortgage, so he wanted to refinance in hopes of arranging a lower monthly payment. The mortgage broker promised Charles he could lower his payment from $980 a month to $880. The broker advised Charles to stop making payments to his old mortgage company, because his new loan would be ready soon.

But then the broker waited more than a month to schedule Charles’ closing. At that closing, Charles learned his new monthly payment was $1,250 — hundreds more than the old payment he had been struggling to make. By now, Charles’ old mortgage company was threatening to foreclose on his home, so he felt trapped and he signed for the new loan.

When I investigated Charles’ case, I learned his monthly payment was jacked up illegally. By law, the broker was supposed to inform him the price was going up. The reason the monthly payment was so high is that the brokerage firm charged an unconscionable $13,000 to process the loan — pure profit for the broker. This abusive fee was then rolled into Charles’ loan, so he ended up owing $146,000 on a house that was only worth $126,000.

Charles couldn’t afford his new monthly payments. Eventually, he declared bankruptcy and the bank sold his home on the courthouse steps. He’d been trying to avoid foreclosure, but that’s exactly what he got.

Some predatory lenders purposely structure their loans so the monthly payments are too high for the borrower. When the borrower defaults, the lender offers yet another loan with additional closing costs and fees. This is called “flipping.”

Consumer advocates have documented cases in which homeowners were “flipped” into more than 10 different loans in just four years. One homeowner just wanted to borrow $26,000 but ended up paying $29,000 in closing costs and fees!

Know the Signs

1. Predatory lenders often promise one set of terms when they talk to you, then jack up the price at closing. It’s a sign that you’re in for a rough ride.

2. If a mortgage broker asks you to sign a blank application form, that’s a red flag. The broker may intend to falsify your credit history so you’ll qualify for a loan you can’t afford.

3. Adding co-signers is another ploy. Unscrupulous brokers may ask you to come up with a co-signer, knowing full well that person doesn’t really intend to contribute to the payments. It’s another way of getting you an expensive loan that the broker will make a lot of money on.

4. If a lender refuses to give you a copy of the good-faith estimate, that’s a signal that the estimate will change. The lender doesn’t want you to have written proof of the terms you were first offered.

5. Predatory lenders often structure loans with balloon payments at the end. The monthly payment seems manageable, but in a few years’ time you could owe tens of thousands of dollars all at once. Of course, the broker is hoping you won’t be able to afford the balloon payment and you’ll refinance again, generating more fees for the firm.

6. If you see ” credit life insurance” as a line item in your loan, beware! This kind of insurance is supposed to pay off your loans if you die. It’s a rip-off. A basic life insurance policy is all you need. Plus, predatory lenders charge exorbitant premiums for products like credit life, credit disability and involuntary unemployment insurance.

7. Same goes for homeowner’s insurance. Predatory lenders have been known to add expensive homeowner’s insurance to a loan even though the homeowner already has insurance through an outside company.

8. Some predatory lenders continue to abuse you after you’ve gotten your loan by tacking on expenses to your monthly payments. They may charge for providing an escrow account for your property taxes, even though you are paying them directly yourself. They may charge late fees even when your payments are on time. If you try to refinance with another lender they may refuse to provide you with an accurate payoff statement.

Do Your Homework

1. Be the hunter, not the hunted. Don’t borrow money from a company that slips a flier under your door or blares at you in a TV commercial. Find your own mortgage company. Check with the company that currently holds your mortgage if you want to refinance. Go to the bank where you have your checking account. Ask friends and neighbors if they’ve had a good experience.

2. Once you narrow down your list, check out the mortgage brokers or lenders by contacting the BBB and your county and state consumer protection agencies.

3. When a mortgage broker or lender gives you an estimate, get it in writing and make sure you have your own copy.

4. Never sign any paperwork that contains blanks.

5. Never follow advice to stop paying on your old mortgage loan. This could affect your credit record and trap you into accepting a predatory loan.

6. Demand a copy of your closing paperwork a couple days before the closing. Review it to see if the terms are different from what you were initially offered.

7. When you refinance with a different lender, you have the right to back out of the loan within three days of your closing. If you detect problems at your closing, immediately ask a real estate attorney for an opinion, so you can take advantage of that window.

How to Complain

If yours is an FHA loan, complain to HUD, the Department of Housing and Urban Development. If you’ve got a veteran’s loan, complain to the VA. Contact your county and state consumer protection offices too. If they can’t help you, they’ll give you a referral. Your city or county office of fair housing may also be able to help. Also complain to the BBB so other consumers will have a paper trail to follow.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

 

SEC Investigates Subprime Mortgage Lenders

Tuesday, March 20th, 2007


March 20, 2007

WASHINGTON – Securities and Exchange Commission Enforcement Director Linda Thomsen acknowledged Monday that her agency is scrutinizing the troubled subprime mortgage lending industry.  Amidst growing mortgage loan defaults by homeowners and a rising tide of foreclosures across the country the SEC announced that it would examine the accounting practices at some lenders.

“We’re looking at subprime…we’re going to look at all the actors and their roles.,” commented Thomsen.  She would not provide further details stressing SEC policies about not making comments about ongoing investigations.

Securities regulators in the individual states are also looking into the subprime market meltdown and analysts at major investment firms who covered the sector.  Subpoenas were issued in Massachusetts last week for UBS Securities LLC and Bear Sterns & Co., Inc to see if they glossed over irregularities in subprime lenders’ practices and issued inaccurate analyses.

As a means of creating greater oversight of possible abusive lending practices that have, in part, fueled the problems in the mortgage lending industry, Senator Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut has announced hearings on Thursday of this week.  The Senator invited the CEOs of New Century Financial Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp., WMC Mortgage, HSBC Holdings Corp., and First Franklin Financial Corp. to testify at the hearing.

This call for reporting to Congress comes on the heels of a nationwide focus on problems involving subprime loans, those made to people with credit problems or who chose to “state” their income instead of providing proof of earnings.  Many analysts credit this phenomenon of allowing homeowners to merely state their incomes as one of the root causes of the problems in this economic sector.

“The housing market’s spectacular boom in the early part of this decade, especially in California, was fueled in part by homeowners who overstated their incomes significantly,” stated Patrick McGilvray, J.D., President of Sacramento-based www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com.  He added, “lenders often turned a blind eye to the ability of their borrowers to repay their debts over the entire term of their loans.”

TheHomeBuyingCenter.com appears in Msn Money

Sunday, March 18th, 2007

Avoiding home foreclosure starts with picking up phone

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. lenders trying to get people to pay overdue bills on risky subprime mortgages expect half of those borrowers to avoid telephone calls and letters that could help bail them out.

That reaction ensures the mortgage default rates that rattled financial markets last week will rise well into next year, said Duke Olrich, president of DRI Management Systems Inc., a Newport Beach, California, developer of software for managing mortgage and automobile loan defaults.

“If you can’t get a hold of them you can’t make a deal,” Olrich said.

Based on past experience, mortgage professionals anticipate half of subprime borrowers, or people with no or spotty credit histories who took on risky mortgages in recent years, will avoid attempts to contact them regarding overdue payments, the first step in salvaging the loans, Olrich said.

“2007 and a good part of 2008 is still going to be a difficult time,” Olrich said in an interview.

During the housing boom, adjustable-rate mortgages allowed subprime borrowers to buy homes out of their reach with conventional mortgages. As low initial interest rates expired and significantly higher rates kicked in, mortgage payments jumped to levels many borrowers could not afford.

After 60 days without a payment, lenders fear a default. “Sixty-plus you’re well on your way out,” Olrich said.

Most lenders try to contact borrowers quickly to see if a failing mortgage can be restructured to avoid an average loss of $50,000 when a bad loan forces foreclosure, Olrich said.

“The objective of the servicer is to keep that borrower in the property,” he said. “There is this myth out there that they’re making money hand over fist on taking a property to foreclosure. It’s exactly that, a myth. They’re losing their shirts.”

The jump in defaults of subprime mortgages over the past year, however, has triggered significant turmoil among many lenders, foremost among them, New Century Financial Corp. , the largest independent U.S. subprime lender.

TAPPED OUT, NO HOPE

Amid the confusion, homeowners like Lupe Perez say they went neglected. Perez said she faces an imminent foreclosure on her Sacramento, California, home after falling behind on mortgage payments.

“I feel conned,” Perez said, noting she agreed to the loan’s adjustable rate only after her loan officer assured her she would be able refinance later. But with her neighborhood’s home prices down, lenders will not refinance, she said.

The 28-year-old state worker said she cannot afford her mortgage because its interest rate is at 11 percent, up from a 5 percent rate that expired late last year. She said losing the three-bedroom house will mark a personal defeat as she put $40,000 from the sale of an inherited house as a down payment.

“I’m tapped out,” Perez said. “There’s no hope.”

Her case does not surprise Patrick McGilvray, president of http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, a Sacramento company matching distressed homeowners with individual investors and prospective home buyers. Some lenders were sloppy during the housing boom because of the volume of business they received, he said.

“There was a record number of originations of loans,” he said. “Facing explosive growth, balls get dropped.”

Little thought was given in recent years to the future costs of easy money, Olrich added: “A lot of loan brokers were out there and I’m not sure they told the whole story,” he said. “Maybe, they (borrowers) didn’t know all the questions to ask.”

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20070318&ID=6628796

Avoiding home foreclosure starts with picking up phone

Sunday, March 18th, 2007

By Jim Christie
Reuters
Sunday, March 18, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. lenders trying to get people to pay overdue bills on risky subprime mortgages expect half of those borrowers to avoid telephone calls and letters that could help bail them out.

That reaction ensures the mortgage default rates that rattled financial markets last week will rise well into next year, said Duke Olrich, president of DRI Management Systems Inc., a Newport Beach, California, developer of software for managing mortgage and automobile loan defaults.

“If you can’t get a hold of them you can’t make a deal,” Olrich said.

Based on past experience, mortgage professionals anticipate half of subprime borrowers, or people with no or spotty credit histories who took on risky mortgages in recent years, will avoid attempts to contact them regarding overdue payments, the first step in salvaging the loans, Olrich said.

“2007 and a good part of 2008 is still going to be a difficult time,” Olrich said in an interview.

During the housing boom, adjustable-rate mortgages allowed subprime borrowers to buy homes out of their reach with conventional mortgages. As low initial interest rates expired and significantly higher rates kicked in, mortgage payments jumped to levels many borrowers could not afford.

After 60 days without a payment, lenders fear a default. “Sixty-plus you’re well on your way out,” Olrich said.

Most lenders try to contact borrowers quickly to see if a failing mortgage can be restructured to avoid an average loss of $50,000 when a bad loan forces foreclosure, Olrich said.

“The objective of the servicer is to keep that borrower in the property,” he said. “There is this myth out there that they’re making money hand over fist on taking a property to foreclosure. It’s exactly that, a myth. They’re losing their shirts.”

The jump in defaults of subprime mortgages over the past year, however, has triggered significant turmoil among many lenders, foremost among them, New Century Financial Corp. (NEWC.PK), the largest independent U.S. subprime lender.

TAPPED OUT, NO HOPE

Amid the confusion, homeowners like Lupe Perez say they went neglected. Perez said she faces an imminent foreclosure on her Sacramento, California, home after falling behind on mortgage payments.

“I feel conned,” Perez said, noting she agreed to the loan’s adjustable rate only after her loan officer assured her she would be able refinance later. But with her neighborhood’s home prices down, lenders will not refinance, she said.

The 28-year-old state worker said she cannot afford her mortgage because its interest rate is at 11 percent, up from a 5 percent rate that expired late last year. She said losing the three-bedroom house will mark a personal defeat as she put $40,000 from the sale of an inherited house as a down payment.

“I’m tapped out,” Perez said. “There’s no hope.”

Her case does not surprise Patrick McGilvray, president of http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, a Sacramento company matching distressed homeowners with individual investors and prospective home buyers. Some lenders were sloppy during the housing boom because of the volume of business they received, he said.

“There was a record number of originations of loans,” he said. “Facing explosive growth, balls get dropped.”

Little thought was given in recent years to the future costs of easy money, Olrich added: “A lot of loan brokers were out there and I’m not sure they told the whole story,” he said. “Maybe, they (borrowers) didn’t know all the questions to ask.”

 

Avoiding home foreclosure starts with picking up phone

Sunday, March 18th, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - U.S. lenders trying to get people to pay overdue bills on risky subprime mortgages expect half of those borrowers to avoid telephone calls and letters that could help bail them out.

That reaction ensures the mortgage default rates that rattled financial markets last week will rise well into next year, said Duke Olrich, president of DRI Management Systems Inc., a Newport Beach, California, developer of software for managing mortgage and automobile loan defaults.

“If you can’t get a hold of them you can’t make a deal,” Olrich said.

Based on past experience, mortgage professionals anticipate half of subprime borrowers, or people with no or spotty credit histories who took on risky mortgages in recent years, will avoid attempts to contact them regarding overdue payments, the first step in salvaging the loans, Olrich said.

“2007 and a good part of 2008 is still going to be a difficult time,” Olrich said in an interview.

During the housing boom, adjustable-rate mortgages allowed subprime borrowers to buy homes out of their reach with conventional mortgages. As low initial interest rates expired and significantly higher rates kicked in, mortgage payments jumped to levels many borrowers could not afford.

After 60 days without a payment, lenders fear a default. “Sixty-plus you’re well on your way out,” Olrich said.

Most lenders try to contact borrowers quickly to see if a failing mortgage can be restructured to avoid an average loss of $50,000 when a bad loan forces foreclosure, Olrich said.

“The objective of the servicer is to keep that borrower in the property,” he said. “There is this myth out there that they’re making money hand over fist on taking a property to foreclosure. It’s exactly that, a myth. They’re losing their shirts.”

The jump in defaults of subprime mortgages over the past year, however, has triggered significant turmoil among many lenders, foremost among them, New Century Financial Corp. , the largest independent U.S. subprime lender.

TAPPED OUT, NO HOPE

Amid the confusion, homeowners like Lupe Perez say they went neglected. Perez said she faces an imminent foreclosure on her Sacramento, California, home after falling behind on mortgage payments.

“I feel conned,” Perez said, noting she agreed to the loan’s adjustable rate only after her loan officer assured her she would be able refinance later. But with her neighborhood’s home prices down, lenders will not refinance, she said.

The 28-year-old state worker said she cannot afford her mortgage because its interest rate is at 11 percent, up from a 5 percent rate that expired late last year. She said losing the three-bedroom house will mark a personal defeat as she put $40,000 from the sale of an inherited house as a down payment.

“I’m tapped out,” Perez said. “There’s no hope.”

Her case does not surprise Patrick McGilvray, president of http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, a Sacramento company matching distressed homeowners with individual investors and prospective home buyers. Some lenders were sloppy during the housing boom because of the volume of business they received, he said.

“There was a record number of originations of loans,” he said. “Facing explosive growth, balls get dropped.”

Little thought was given in recent years to the future costs of easy money, Olrich added: “A lot of loan brokers were out there and I’m not sure they told the whole story,” he said. “Maybe, they (borrowers) didn’t know all the questions to ask.”

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/printarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20070318&id=6628796

The Home Buying Center appears in MSN Money

Sunday, March 18th, 2007

The 28-year-old state worker said she cannot afford her mortgage because its interest rate is at 11 percent, up from a 5 percent rate that expired late last year. She said losing the three-bedroom house will mark a personal defeat as she put $40,000 from the sale of an inherited house as a down payment.

“I’m tapped out,” Perez said. “There’s no hope.”

Her case does not surprise Patrick McGilvray, president of www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, a Sacramento company matching distressed homeowners with individual investors and prospective home buyers. Some lenders were sloppy during the housing boom because of the volume of business they received, he said.

“There was a record number of originations of loans,” he said. “Facing explosive growth, balls get dropped.”

Little thought was given in recent years to the future costs of easy money, Olrich added: “A lot of loan brokers were out there and I’m not sure they told the whole story,” he said. “Maybe, they (borrowers) didn’t know all the questions to ask.”

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20070318&ID=6628796

Senator Schedules Subprime Mortgage Crisis Hearings Next Week

Saturday, March 17th, 2007


March 17, 2006

SACRAMENTO, CA — Senator Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee announced plans to hold a hearing next Thursday to investigate the problems in the so-called subprime mortgage industry.

Subprime mortgages and the associated risks of foreclosure they bring are dominating news stories currently, and they involved homeowners with spotty credit or those who simply purchased more expensive homes than they can afford. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association these borrowers are defaulting on their loan payments in record numbers.

Senator Dodd, in a release statement said that “predatory lending practices,” have put at risk the dreams of millions of homeowners. He added, “as Chairman, I will use all the powers and tools at my disposal to keep families victimized by predatory loans in their homes and ensure that America’s dream of homeownership remains alive.”

Greenspan cautions about subprime loan defaults and foreclosures

Saturday, March 17th, 2007

SACRAMENTO, Calif –  Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve on Thursday made comments about the spillover effects of defaults in the subprime mortgage market.

Mr. Greenspan, whose utterances are watched carefully by economists and investors around the world, admitted that it was “hard to find…evidence” about the effects on the broader economy from defaults in the subprime sector.  However, he did opine that, “you can’t take 10% out of mortgage originations without some impact.”

While he did not mention specific related effects of delinquencies of mortgage borrowers he did indicate that he had seen some effects in collateralized debt markets.  In essence, these markets to which Mr. Greenspan referred to are bundles of mortgages sold to investors who look to income from the collected loans.

Greenspan spoke about housing more broadly by commenting that he thought the current downward trend in housing values had more to do with a leveling off of prices after years of spectacular growth.  He did not minimize the problems in the subprime sector, but indicated that he did not think that these challenges were exclusively responsible for the slowdown in housing prices.

The former Fed Chairman spoke about the current problems in the residential housing sector and laid the blame for them at the feet of buyers who came into the game late in the run-up.  Many of these buyers often bought a house in desperation because they thought that they might not be able to afford a home if prices continued to rise. 

Not surprisingly, these borrowers who “bought high” are the ones most likely to be in default on their mortgage payments.  And, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the proportion of mortgages in the initial stages of foreclosure rose to the highest rate on record,

According to website Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter, a site which purports to track mortgage lenders in difficult straits, 39 lenders have gone belly-up since late 2006. 

Commentator and foreclosure expert Patrick McGilvray, J.D., President of Sacramento, CA based http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com had this to say, “people across the country contact our company and call every day with stories about how their subprime mortgage is hurting them financially.  Many are looking to us to help them with a short-sale because they now owe more than their properties are worth and their adjustable rate mortgages have reset to higher payments or are about to in the very near future.”

Housing Market Facing Mortgage Meltdown

Friday, March 16th, 2007

(CBS13) SACRAMENTO A national issue is really hitting California. 1 in 5 Californians don’t put any money down when they buy a home. With the grim reality of what’s going on in the mortgage industry, the option of “financing a home 100%” is going to get a lot harder, If not impossible.

When Kyle and Jennifer Finely bought their first home to start their family, they had no money for a down payment. Loans covered 100% of the purchase price.

“There was nothing else we could do,” said Finley.

Now, many mortgage companies are taking away that option. Part of the plummet on Wall Street this week was investors who pulled out partially because they were fed up with losing money on high risk loans.

“There are going to be fewer player in the market which means less competition which means some people just won’t be about to get 100-percent financing and those that do are going to pay a little more for it,” said Pat Driver, loan officer.

To avoid paying private mortgage insurance in 100-percent financing, there are 2 loans: A first for 80-percent and a second for 20-percent. Many lending institutions are now saying ‘no’ that 2nd loan.

“Part of the problem in California, we’ve always had is the affordability of housing,” said real estate agent Dick Swayne

Swayne says home ownership is a great asset but the reality of having to come up 10’s of thousands of dollars for a down payment may push many out of the market.

“if they don’t have a saving account and they don’t have money to put down, It’s going to affect those general that is the 1st time homebuyer. I think it’s been too way to easy to borrow money,” said Driver.

But there may also be a positive. With all the hysteria to jump into the housing market, many people have ended up in homes they can’t afford to keep.

“It’s better not to own a home than lose it in foreclosure,” said Driver.

100 financing isn’t going away completely Bigger banks still have programs, but they will be harder to qualify for and more expensive.
http://cbs13.com/topstories/local_story_076003819.html

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

More homeowners in danger of foreclosure

Thursday, March 15th, 2007

Increase in number of loans to people with shaky credit just part of problem

A growing number of homeowners in Delaware are falling behind on their mortgage payments, a reflection of a meltdown in the subprime mortgage market that is rattling Wall Street and shaking the housing market nationwide.

The Dow wobbled Wednesday after dropping more than 240 points Tuesday amid the anxiety that troubles in the subprime lending industry, which makes loans to people with poor credit, would lead to further economic pain.

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans in Delaware — mortgage payments that were more than 30 days late — hit 4.47 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from 4.06 percent a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market. The rate of Delaware home mortgages in some stage of foreclosure also increased: from 0.90 percent for the last quarter of 2005 to 0.96 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.

“Alarming” is how Delaware deputy bank commissioner Gerry Kelly described the numbers. The subprime meltdown raises the larger question of how to keep Delaware homeownership up in a softening market, Kelly said.

Home ownership rates have increased in the past decade nationwide, from 64 percent in the early 1990s to 69 percent today. But much of that increase has been through creative financing for borrowers with shaky credit — the subprime market.

By 2005, almost 20 percent of the 18,500 mortgages in Delaware carried a rate 3 or more percentage points above the prime, data from the federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act shows. As prices went up, lenders allowed buyers to borrow more.

In 2000, buyers borrowed about 1.8 times their annual income, the HMDA data show. By 2005, that figure had risen to 2.3 times their annual income.

While the housing market was booming, people were able to sell their homes and pay off the mortgage if they found themselves in over their heads, Kelly said.

But today, the housing market has slowed, making it more difficult for people to sell a house quickly.

“What happens to all of these people who took out these loans and need to refinance?” Kelly asks. “The opportunity to get out of the situation they’re in is much lower than it was a few years ago.”

Changing the gameAnd as subprime mortgage lenders are coming under greater scrutiny from regulators and investors, lenders are tightening up on requirements for new mortgages.

“This is a bloodletting,” says Joe Capaldi Jr., owner of Mortgage Plus Corp. in Middletown. “The companies that were just throwing caution to the wind and accepting mortgage applications on a cocktail napkin, they’re going away.”

Capaldi believes the contraction is temporary.

At least for the next 30 days “you’re going to see lenders pulling out of various markets,” he says. Three months down the road, some of the more lenient lending programs — such as 100 percent loans, for example — will come back, but will probably be a little more strict than in the past few years.

“I think they’re going to raise the floor a little bit,” Capaldi said. “The programs will come back. People still want to buy houses.”

Scott Armiger, a portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust, also sees the subprime shake-up as a temporary setback and a normal correction in the market.

“The roots of this go back to when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000,” Armiger said. “That money left stocks in general and went to an area of good value, which was real estate.”

Many of the subprime lenders now having trouble were born during that boom, Armiger said.

In the beginningIndications that the bubble was about to burst began last summer, when home builders started to struggle because people weren’t buying as many houses. Then suppliers like Lowe’s and Home Depot took a hit. It rippled down to home furnishing companies like Ethan Allen. Now it has hit the lenders themselves, Armiger said.

The next domino to fall would be the consumer in general — which could lead to a general economic slowdown, or in the worst case, a recession. “I think that’s what’s spooking the market,” Armiger said.

Overall, Delaware has done better than the rest of the country because of a stronger job market, housing market and a lower percentage of subprime loans, said Mike Fratantoni, a senior economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Unemployment in Delaware was 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, compared with 4.5 percent nationally, he said. And home prices in Delaware grew at a 6.4 percent rate, compared to the national average of 5 percent.

“Everything is looking good for Delaware relative to the rest of the country,” Fratantoni said.

The housing market will regain its footing in the middle or end of this year, Fratantoni predicts.

But Kevin Schroeder, co-owner of 20/20 Mortgage in Georgetown, expects to see things get worse before they get better.

“Unfortunately it winds up being a perfect storm” with high housing inventories, mortgage rates re-setting, and people trying and failing to qualify for refinancing, Schroeder said.

That transition will be short, however, as investors will spot good deals and drive the market back up.

“It always shakes out,” Schroeder says. “Wall Street is always looking for something to point the finger at to blame for its woes. … Congress will hold hearings and people will wring their hands, and in six months it will be cold coffee.”http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Subprime woes may hit capital

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

Tightening lending could make the region’s home-sales slowdown worse, experts predict.

By Jim Wasserman - Bee Staff Writer

A meltdown in the subprime mortgage lending market might mean trouble for a Sacramento-area market many believe is slowly coming out of its housing slump.

Last year an estimated 27 percent of area buyers took out subprime loans, which have higher interest rates reflecting the risks of lending to people with blemished credit histories. Now, many here and across the country are having trouble making payments, threatening the companies that issued the loans.

That has many worried that the resulting financial implosions among subprime lenders, along with newly tightened credit standards, could reduce the number of potential homebuyers.

The growing woes of subprime lenders contributed to a 242-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average on Tuesday. The Dow’s second-largest drop of the year came as investors, fearful of the impact the troubled housing market could have on the overall economy, fled the already devalued subprime sector.

Contractions in the recently highflying subprime business also have implications for refinancing, limiting options for homeowners with mortgage trouble. Analysts say the lack of escape routes for homeowners under financial stress almost certainly will push more into foreclosure, aggravating an oversupply of resale houses and possibly prolonging a regional housing slump now nearly 2 years old.

“Now the ones who can’t refinance will downsize, and if anything, the move-up market will see the pain,” said Alexis McGee, president and co-founder of Fair Oaks-based ForeclosureS.com, a Web site that tracks foreclosures for investors.

Subprime loans, just a sliver of the lending market five years ago, grew to 20 percent of all home loans nationally last year, and about 27 percent of home and refinancing loans in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, according to LoanPerformance. com.

Though costly — interest rates often are roughly 3 percent higher than conventional loans — subprime loans are a popular way for people to buy homes they couldn’t otherwise afford. But they’re especially risky. Many who could afford their low initial costs have defaulted as rising adjustable interest rates pushed their monthly payments out of reach.

No one knows how much impact the fast-moving developments involving the subprime industry will have on housing markets. But the topic has moved center stage as lenders tighten up on loans — especially ones that required no down payments — that were once easy to get.

“We’re getting this substantial credit contraction at a time when supply is at an all-time high, which is not good,” said Eric Landry, an analyst who tracks the nation’s home building industry for Chicago-based investment researcher Morningstar.

In a note Tuesday to investors, Landry warned, “It’s probable that an entire (portion) of buyers has been taken out of the available pool of homebuyers and won’t return for several years.”

The growing concerns were highlighted by Tuesday’s release of Mortgage Bankers Association data showing the percentage of loans new on the path to foreclosure reached a 37-year high during the last three months of 2006. A leading factor: subprime loans.

The MBA, a national trade group for the mortgage lending industry, reported that 0.54 percent of the 43.5 million loans tracked began the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter last year, the highest percentage of new foreclosure activity since the second quarter of 2002.

For subprime borrowers, the number was 2 percent.

The MBA reported that 13.3 percent of subprime loans and 2.57 percent of conventional loans are at least 30 days overdue, a trend that has risen in both categories since the end of 2005. Nationally, 4.95 percent of all home loans combined are 30 days or more behind on payments — compared to 4.7 percent the same time in 2005.

As troubles mount, Sacramento-area real estate and home-builder representatives say dwindling reliance on subprime lending might hurt sales in the short run but they believe such a move will help stabilize the market in the long term. Last year, more than 42,000 new and existing houses and condos were sold in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter and Yolo counties.

Currently, there are 11,400 existing homes and condos for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties.

“My gut reaction from the world of selling real estate is it will have an effect but not a huge one,” said Leigh Rutledge, a Sacramento agent. “In the long term, actually, I think it’s a good thing. It will bring a more qualified buyer.”

Nationally, mortgage officials expect the number of subprime loans in 2007 to fall 30 percent from last year. Locally, that might mean thousands fewer loans.

“That takes a whole group of purchases and stops the food chain,” said John Fabish, a former lender and president of the Sacramento chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.

Fabish, who now works in the risk management sector, said removing “that whole tier of no-equity folks, pretty much all first-time homebuyers, from the buying pool” can easily start a negative domino effect.

“Business will slow way down. Move-ups will slow way down. If nobody’s there to buy your house, there’s two transactions that don’t happen,” he said.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

U.S. Foreclosure Rate Hits Record High

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

The Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday that the rate of homes entering foreclosure hit a record 0.54% in Q4 last year. Delinquency rates for subprime mortgages hit 14.44%, a 122 basis-point jump in three months. The overall delinquency rate on U.S. home loans leaped to 4.95% from 4.67%. The association reported that 4.53% of 5.97 million subprime loans were in foreclosure at the end of Q4, up from 3.86% at of the end of Q3. Among prime loans, however, only 0.50% of 33.32 million loans were in foreclosure, up from 0.44%. The worst-performing states in terms of delinquencies were Mississippi with a 10.64% overall rate, Louisiana with 9.10%, and Michigan with 7.87%. The states with the highest foreclosure rates were Ohio, Indiana and Michigan.

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said that while the federal government has an obligation to “protect consumers from abusive lending practices,” it also must be careful to avoid imposing so much regulation that the market would be prevented from “respond[ing] to changes in underlying economic conditions.”

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Avoiding Foreclosure

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

Foreclosures have become a problem in Kentucky, and in Indiana it’s even worse.

Before you get to the point of losing your home, there are some steps you take to hold onto it.

Homeowners lured in by special low interest offers have found their rates have now jumped and they’re paying double.

Before you get to the point of losing the roof over your head, pick up the phone and call your mortgage company.

You can discuss repayment plans and refinancing. It’s suggested that you lock in on a 30-year fixed rate loan. Your mortgage lender should be able to tell you about special grants for which you may qualify.

Here are some names and phone numbers for those who are looking for good legitimate mortgage assistance:

–Consumer Credit Counseling at 458-8440

–The Urban League at 585-4622

–The Housing Partnership at 515-1446

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Foreclosure rates rising

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

She gives her name, but doesn’t want it printed. Foreclosure isn’t something to be proud of.
The Mankato woman’s home has been trashed by an unwelcome guest, her knee injured in an accident that cut her down to part time work only. She stopped making house payments last summer, and could only watch in January as her home was sold to the highest bidder.
It’s a tragic story, and one that’s being retold more often. Foreclosure rates are skyrocketing across the country, southern Minnesota included.
Explanations for the upswing include rising interest rates and new, riskier mortgage options. Homeowners who are just treading water are finding it easier and easier to sink.
In Blue Earth County, the number of homes sold — typically to an out-of-state mortgage company — due to foreclosure has risen by two-thirds, from 54 in 2005 to 91 in 2006, according to county records compiled by The Free Press.
In Sibley County, foreclosures increased from 25 in 2005 to 41 in 2006, an increase of 64 percent.
(Most area counties, including Nicollet County, don’t keep year-to-year records on the number of foreclosure sales.)
The Star Tribune reports a 79 percent rise in home loss due to Minneapolis foreclosures from 2005 to 2006. And the St. Cloud Times says foreclosures there have risen 83 percent.
Risky loans
Medical catastrophe and job losses have long caused mortgage foreclosures, but neither cause seems to be on a sharp upswing lately.
A state-sponsored study shows that the number of Minnesotans without health insurance rose from 2001 to 2004, but only slightly — from 5.4 percent to 6.7 percent.
And Blue Earth County’s unemployment rate has decreased from 3.3 percent in 2000 to 3.2 percent in 2006, according to state figures.
Denise Nienow, vice president of Pioneer Bank, said declining interest rates in the late ’90s allowed prospective home buyers to buy more expensive homes.
Mortgage lenders began to allow so-called “boutique” loans that can carry more risk.
They include adjustable-rate loans, which take advantage of initially low interest rates but can cause dramatically higher payments when rates go up.
As an online interest calculator shows, a $200,000 home with a 30-year mortgage and a 6 percent interest rate would cost $1,199 a month. Increase the interest rate by 2 percent and that rises to $1,467 per month.
Also new to the market are “negative amortization” loans whereby the buyer pays less each month than even the interest that is owned.
Consumers of such loans clearly expect to make more money later to begin paying off the home itself — not just the interest owed on the loan — but that doesn’t always happen.
Responsibility key
A balance between personal and lender responsibility plays out here.
Greg Farnham is a regional sales manager for Wells Fargo who oversees about 250 loan officers statewide.
He says his bank just doesn’t do negative amortization loans.
“We don’t make loans if we’re not confident in the ability of the lender to repay,” he said.
But foreclosures aren’t caused by a single, “bad” type of loan, but happen when lending packages don’t mix with the home buyer.
Adjustable-rate mortgages can catch some by surprise, but Farnham said he’s had one all his life.
“It’s really an education process,” he says, echoing the comments of many banking and foreclosure prevention experts.
Getting out
Sometimes a solution is to work with your lender to find a new payment plan. That’s in your bank’s best interest.
“Foreclosures are expensive for us, too,” Nienow says.
So why do so many homeowners wait until the cusp of foreclosure before acting?
“It’s probably a pride factor,” Farnham said.
Another problem, he said, comes from the cooling real estate market.
By law, a homeowner in foreclosure has a six-month redemption period, providing some time to sell the house. But houses that haven’t appreciated in value can be much more difficult to sell, especially when few payments have been made.
The Mankato woman who lost her home to foreclosure wishes now she had taken a class on how to buy a home. That, and perhaps to declare bankruptcy to keep creditors away.
Foreclosure has been an emotionally draining experience.
It “strips you of your dignity, your credit … everything,” the woman said as she turned to leave.

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com 

Credit Crackdown Shutting Out Home Buyers

Tuesday, March 13th, 2007

Even before Goodman Griffin and his girlfriend began house-hunting a month ago, they sat down with a mortgage broker and were pre-qualified for the nontraditional loan they needed to purchase the kind of home they wanted.

So it came as a shock when the loan they thought they had was yanked away from them this week just as the seller accepted their contract on a four-bedroom, $300,000 house.

“We’ve been on a merry-go-round, thinking we’re going to get the loan, then thinking we’re not going to get the loan,” said Griffin, 45, who has rented a house. “We have no confidence at this point that we’re going to get the house.”

More would-be home buyers with blemished credit histories may soon be shut out of the housing market now that lenders are curtailing the number of loans to risky, or subprime, borrowers.

During the first half of this decade, when housing prices spiked, lenders chased after such borrowers, making it easier for them to buy homes they otherwise could not have afforded. But after the housing market cooled last year, delinquencies and defaults spiked, forcing more than two dozen lenders to close, sell themselves to larger firms or report staggering financial losses. Some have chosen to get pickier about borrowers - a course encouraged by federal regulators.

Connecticut had an earlier experience with the trend the many other areas of the country. Mortgage Lenders Network, a subprime lender based in Middletown, was forced to file for bankruptcy protection last month when its sources of funding disappeared.

General Electric’s U.S. mortgage arm this week laid off a fifth of its workers because of a jump in defaults and has stopped making some risky loans.

New Century Financial, one of the nation’s largest lenders to subprime borrowers, said Thursday that it had stopped accepting new loan applications under pressure from its creditors.

BNC Mortgage, the lender that last month pre-qualified Griffin and his girlfriend, chose to tighten its rules. That’s why the company withdrew its offer to grant the couple a 100 percent loan, meaning it would not have required them to put any money down, said Matt Smeltzer, a BNC sales executive.

BNC now demands higher credit scores for such loans than it did a month ago. “I’m probably turning away about 50 percent of those loans, whereas before I would reject maybe 30 percent of them,” Smeltzer said.

Those 100 percent loans, and loans that do not require borrowers to document their income, have been the first ones dropped by some lenders because of their risk. But there are many other types of loans, because as home prices climbed, consumers demanded nontraditional mortgages that lenders happily delivered. Other loans include adjustable-rate mortgages that offer tantalizingly low teaser rates that rise, or balloon, in later years.

The thinking was that as long as home prices kept rising, people could sell their homes or refinance themselves out of trouble. But after prices leveled off last year, delinquencies and defaults followed.

David Liu, an analyst with UBS, said that of all the loans originated in 2006, the default rate for those 60 days or more delinquent has exceeded 10 percent, more than double what it was in late 2005, when the rate was just above 4 percent.

“This is the highest rate we’ve had since the mid-1990s,” when the subprime portion of the mortgage market broke off into a free-standing industry, Liu said.

The industry typically works like this: Mortgage brokers sell the loans to lenders or Wall Street investment firms, which then package them into securities. The mortgage-backed securities are bought as bonds by such investors as pension funds.

“As these defaults accelerate, the end investors are getting spooked,” said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research, based in Jupiter, Fla. “These mortgages are going bad so fast, that makes them want to buy fewer of the bonds and that means Wall Street investors have trouble packaging the securities and it trickles on down the food chain.”

That’s when the mortgage brokers, the folks on the front lines, start feeling the squeeze, as Daniel Walsh can attest.

“We have had to tell customers that were dreaming and hoping of finding a place to sort of put their search on hold because of the way the market has turned,” said Walsh, president of Guardian Funding, a lender and broker in Kensington, Md.

The firm’s motto has been “When others say no, we say yes.” But recently, “we’ve been saying some no’s,” Walsh said.

One of the national lenders that recently closed gave almost no advance notice, leaving borrowers up in the air, said Tysons Corner, Va., mortgage broker Abe Nejad.

“They were sitting on a pile of loans that were set to close on the very day they closed their doors. They had to call brokers like me and say, ‘Hey, sorry, I know you have 10 loans that were supposed to close with us this week, but unfortunately … we’re not able to close any of them.’ ”

But some lenders and housing counselors are cheering the crackdown, saying it will prevent home buyers from getting in over their heads.

“Some of these people who come into our office need more time before jumping into the housing market,” said Marcia Griffin, president of HomeFree-USA, a Washington nonprofit group that helps educate home buyers.

In her opinion, having lenders hold off on financing homes that people can’t afford is a development that’s “heaven sent.”

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Foreclosures May Hit 1.5 Million in U.S. Housing Bust

Monday, March 12th, 2007

Hold on to your assets. The deepest housing decline in 16 years is about to get worse.As many as 1.5 million more Americans may lose their homes, another 100,000 people in housing-related industries could be fired, and an estimated 100 additional subprime mortgage companies that lend money to people with bad or limited credit may go under, according to realtors, economists, analysts and a Federal Reserve governor. Financial stocks also could extend their declines over mortgage default worries.

The spring buying season, when more than half of all U.S. home sales are made, has been so disappointing that the National Association of Home Builders in Washington now expects purchases to fall for the sixth consecutive quarter after it predicted a gain just last month.

“The correction will last another year,'’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Fewer people qualifying for mortgages means there will be less borrowers, and that will weigh on demand.'’

A five-year housing boom that ended in 2006 expanded home- ownership to a record number of U.S. households. Now it has given way to mounting defaults, failing subprime mortgage companies and an increasing number of unsold homes.

Last Housing Slump

If this slump follows the same pattern as the last one, in 1991, it will persist for at least another year and may fuel a recession. New-home sales declined 45 percent from July 1989 to January 1991 and about 1 percent of all U.S. jobs, or 1.1 million, were lost in that recession, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the California Association of Realtors.

This time around, new-home sales have declined 28 percent since September 2005, hitting a low in January, the last month for which data is available. And though the national jobless rate is near a five-year low this month, mortgage-related jobs fell by almost 2,000 in January alone. At least two dozen of the more than 8,000 mortgage lenders have been forced to close or sell operations since the start of 2006.

Subprime lenders Ameriquest Mortgage Co. in Irvine, California; Ownit Mortgage Solutions LLC and WMC Mortgage Corp., a subsidiary of General Electric Co., in Woodland Hills, California; Mortgage Lenders Network USA Inc. in Middletown, Connecticut and Fremont General Corp. together have fired more than 5,600 workers in the past year.

New Century

New Century Financial Corp., the second-largest subprime lender, said today it ran out of cash to pay back creditors who are demanding their money now. The Irvine, California-based company has lost 90 percent of its market value this year and stopped making new subprime loans, prompting speculation it will seek bankruptcy protection. New Century already has cut 300 jobs and its 7,000 remaining employees are waiting to see if the company will survive.

Fremont General, the Brea, California-based lender that is trying to sell its residential-mortgage unit, was ordered to stop making subprime loans by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. last week. Fremont was marketing and extending loans “in a way that substantially increased the likelihood of borrower default or other loss to the bank,'’ the FDIC said last week.

Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association, predicted in January that more than 100 home lenders may fail this year.

The subprime crisis “has taken the fuel out of the real estate market,'’ said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast in Los Angeles. “The market needs new money in order to appreciate, and all of that money is gone for a very long time. The regulators are not going to allow it to happen again.'’

Higher Rates

Subprime mortgages are given to people who wouldn’t qualify for standard home loans and typically have rates at least 2 or 3 percentage points above safer prime loans. The portion of subprime loans that financed new mortgages rose to 20 percent last year from 5 percent in 2001, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Subprime loans contributed to a home-ownership rate that reached a record 69.3 percent of U.S. households in the second quarter of 2004, up 5.4 percentage points from the same period in 1991, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Probably the gain in home ownership over the last four, five years, is almost entirely due to looser lending standards,'’ said James Fielding, a homebuilding credit analyst at Standard & Poor’s in New York.

Refinancing Option

As home prices steadily gained from 2001 to 2006, homeowners who fell behind on mortgage payments could sell their homes and pay off their loans or get better refinancing terms based on the higher value of their property. Now that home values are declining, many borrowers won’t be able to refinance because they would have to come up with the difference between their new mortgage and what their home is now worth.

Defaults may dump more than 500,000 homes on a housing market already saturated with leftover inventory built during boom times, New York-based bond research firm CreditSights Inc. said in a March 1 report.

Mortgage defaults may climb to $225 billion over the next two years, compared with about $40 billion annually in 2005 and 2006, according to debt strategists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Seven-Year High

The portion of subprime loans more than 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure rose to 10 percent as of Dec. 31, from 5.4 percent in May 2005, the highest in seven years, according to data compiled by Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. of Arlington, Virginia.

Many of the delinquencies came from loans where borrowers didn’t have to provide tax returns or other evidence of income, or where they financed 100 percent or more of the home’s value, CreditSights analyst David Hendler wrote in a March 5 report. Other defaults came on adjustable-rate mortgages with artificially low introductory “teaser'’ rates, sometimes with “option'’ payment plans that allowed borrowers to defer interest.

Banks ought to be concerned about such loans and are likely to see more missed payments and foreclosures as consumers with weak credit histories begin to face higher monthly mortgage payments, Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said last week.

“What we’re seeing in this narrow segment is the beginning of the wave,'’ Bies said. “This is not the end, this is the beginning.'’

About 1.5 million U.S. homeowners out of a total of 80 million will lose their homes through foreclosure, University of California-Berkeley economist Ken Rosen said last week.

“The subprime borrowers paid too much for their homes, and all of a sudden, they’ll see their house value drop by 10 to 15 percent,'’ Rosen said.

Borrowers at Risk

The Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina, said in a December study that as many as 2.2 million borrowers are at risk of losing their homes, at a potential cost of $164 billion, from subprime mortgages originated from 1998 through 2006.

The number of U.S. foreclosures rose 42 percent to 1.2 million last year from 2005, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, while delinquencies in the last three months of 2006 rose to the highest level in four years, the Federal Reserve said.

Housing and related industries, which account for about 23 percent of the U.S. economy — including makers of everything from copper pipes to kitchen cabinets — fired about 100,000 workers last year. The total will be higher this year, according to Amal Bendimerad of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Job Cuts

By the end of this year, job cuts at companies including Benton Harbor, Michigan-based Whirlpool Corp., Masco Corp. of Taylor, Michigan, and St. Louis-based Emerson Electric Co. may exceed the fallout from the 1991 housing slump, said Paul Puryear, managing director at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Raymond James & Associates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t give data for housing-related job losses.

“The fallout in the early 1990s was much worse than what we’ve seen so far, but this downturn is not over,'’ Puryear said. “The full impact hasn’t hit yet.'’

U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, said he may propose legislation to reign in “inappropriate'’ lending, and a House subcommittee is scheduled to consider subprime lending and foreclosures March 27.

“The standards got loosened so much, and there’s always the pressure to make money that there was pressure to maybe make the questionable loans that shouldn’t have been made,'’ said Ohio Representative Paul Gillmor, the subcommittee’s top Republican, in a March 9 interview. “The major problem has been the overall deterioration in credit standards by lenders that’s exacerbated by those who are unscrupulous.'’

Fraud `Pervasive and Growing’

The Federal Bureau of Investigation says mortgage fraud is “pervasive and growing'’ and the incidence of such fraud has almost doubled in the past three years.

“There has been an increase in unscrupulous individuals in the market,'’ said Arthur Prieston, chairman of the Prieston Group, a San Francisco-based company that investigates mortgage fraud. “There’s an unfair assumption of a connection between subprime failure and fraud. But there is a connection between early default and fraud.'’

Mortgage fraud is committed when a borrower misrepresents himself or his finances to a lender. Some of that fraud involved speculators. They drove up prices during the boom by ordering new homes with the intent of selling them immediately after taking possession.

That “flipping'’ inflated demand and put the speculators in competition with the homebuilders, propelling the median U.S. home price to $276,000 last June from $177,000 in February 2001.

Housing Bubble

“A lot of the housing bubble was speculation,'’ said Mike Inselmann of the Houston-based research firm Metrostudy.

When home prices got so high that speculators could no longer turn a profit, they canceled their contracts and walked away from their down payments.

Cancellation rates for new homes have surged to almost 40 percent of home contracts, Margaret Whelan, a New York-based analyst at UBS AG, said in a report on March 2.

That forced the top five U.S. homebuilders — D.R. Horton Inc., Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp., Centex Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc. — to write off a combined $1.47 billion on abandoned land in the fourth quarter of 2006.

On top of that, new home sales plunged 17 percent last year from 2005, the biggest decline since 1990, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Home Builders. Existing home sales fell 8.4 percent in 2006 from a record in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors.

`All 12 Months’

Donald Tomnitz, D.R. Horton’s chief executive officer, said last week that his Fort Worth, Texas-based company would miss its projections for this year and that “2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year.'’

A Standard and Poor’s index of 16 homebuilders tumbled 4.1 percent today, its biggest decline since August, on concerns over increasing inventory and subprime defaults. The index has fallen 12 percent since Jan. 1.

D.R. Horton shares fell 5.1 percent today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Pulte dropped 4.8 percent; Lennar, based in Miami, dropped 4.9 percent; Dallas-based Centex lost 3.7 percent and Toll, based in Horsham, Pennsylvania, fell 3 percent.

Concern that the housing slump and defaults in the subprime mortgage industry will affect earnings at the largest banks and lenders has hurt financial stocks. They are the worst performers in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the benchmark reached a six- year high on Feb. 20. The group lost 5.6 percent, outpacing the broader index’s 3.9 percent drop.

Investment banks including Merrill Lynch & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley have spent more than $4 billion over the past year to buy home-loan companies as add-ons to their mortgage-bond trading businesses. They needed loans to repackage into securities to sell to investors. Demand for higher yields led them into the subprime market. As that business flourished, financial firms either invested in subprime lenders of bought them.

`Too Early to Tell’

The number of U.S. financial institutions in the mortgage business jumped 16 percent to 8,848 in the past four years, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.

“It’s a little too early to tell how it shakes out for investment banks,'’ said Andrew Davidson, president of New York- based Andrew Davidson & Co., which advises fixed-income investors on mortgage bonds. “If it turns out that they have large losses, the investment banks tend not to be very forgiving and usually terminate businesses that haven’t worked for them.'’

Dale Westhoff, a senior managing director at New York-based Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds, said last week that failing subprime lenders “are going to be absorbed very quickly.'’

“Hedge funds and private equity are going to play a very important role in buying distressed assets,'’ Westhoff said.

Optimists

In contrast to the 1991 housing skid, worker productivity is increasing, consumer confidence is expanding, interest rates remain within 1 percentage point of the 40-year low and the jobless rate fell to a five-year low last month. Last month, 7.4 million new and existing homes were sold at an annualized pace, more than twice the 1991 bottom.

And real estate people tend to be the world’s most optimistic, said Bryce Bowman, director of development for Randolph Equities LLC in Chicago.

“There’s a lot of capital chasing real estate and that has not ceased with this bust,'’ Bowman said. “Developers have stopped building crazy speculative housing developments and are burning off their inventory, so we’re excited about the end of ‘07, and we want to be ready to go when business picks up in ‘08.'’

http://www.TheHomeBuyingCenter.com

Subprime loan hangover

Sunday, March 11th, 2007

(AP) Investors are waiting to find out how just how bad their hangover will be as thousands of loans made to home buyers with spotty credit histories have begun to look dubious in the sobriety that followed the housing bubble.Wall Street is roundly punishing companies whose business is making so-called subprime loans and analysts say a purge of such loan makers would not be unusual. Shares of companies such as Novastar Financial Inc. and New Century Financial Corp. have been hit hardest - their stock is down 80 percent and 90 percent for the year, respectively.

“When we see downturns it is very very common for large numbers of originators to no longer be around at the end of the cycle,” said Andrew Chow, a portfolio manager at SCM Advisors LLC.

“Even if conditions improve, I would think that we would continue to see turnover in who the originators are. It’s a way of life for that sector.”

Investors are concerned that New Century Financial Corp. might soon be felled by the credit restraints that are revisiting the market, and that they will take down similar companies faced with a growing number of defaults on home loans.

New Century, which traded at around $30 per share just over a month ago, closed at $3.22 on the New York Stock Exchange Friday after falling another 66 cents, or 17.6 percent.

Investors are fleeing on concerns of a possible bankruptcy.

Lenders may now find themselves holding deeds to homes in a flat real estate market as risky borrowers are overwhelmed by mortgage payments that ballooned when tempting teaser rates expired.

New Century, already the target of shareholder lawsuits, alarmed investors Thursday when it announced one of its financial backers had turned off the funding spigot. The company said last month it had failed to keep tabs on how frequently borrowers missed payments.

Wall Street is now looking for signs that the problems of New Century and other subprime lenders will branch outward as even more banks pull back on funding.

“We’re definitely going to see fewer small companies in this space,” said Bose George, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. “I think that happens with a combination of mergers, probably some bankruptcies as well. We’ve already seen a lot of bankruptcies of smaller lenders,”

As the market for subprime loans has grown, so has the prevalence of subprime lenders, when compared with the overall mortgage industry. During the last perilous subprime market in 1998, George estimated the market for risky loans was about $100 billion per year.

Today, it’s a $600 billion-per-year business.

Subprime loans now account for around 20 percent of the entire mortgage market, compared with only 12 to 13 percent then, George estimates.

In recent years, the hot real estate market allowed subprime lenders to thrive because they could make loans to risky borrowers who, when faced with financial trouble, simply tapped into equity in their homes for cash. Those mortgage refinancings have slowed as the real estate market cools.

Banks have repackaged subprime loans and sold them on the market in a process known as securitization.

Strong demand on the market meant subprime lenders reaped huge profits, quickly bringing risky borrowers in the front door and selling their loans out the back.

Unlike the 1980s, when savings and loan banks flamed out due to the number of bad loans on their books, there is a much larger pool of investors holding loans that could go bad, Chow said.

“The holders are much more disbursed. It literally is hundreds of thousands investors around the globe,” he said, contending the breadth of those holding the loans could cushion the shock. “That’s not to say that there might not be individual investors who take ferocious beatings and might not survive.”

“We had so many originators entering the market they were all fighting for market share and they began to relax lending standards,” Chow said. “I don’t think anybody would argue that we have a much freer credit environment than 10 years ago.”

George noted that as lenders tighten their credit standards some borrowers with uneven credit histories will be left standing at the doorstep.

“There is definitely going to be a whole cohort of subprime borrowers who were able to take out loans a couple of years ago who can’t anymore,” George said.

Matthew Howlett, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton, said it is unclear where the shakeout will leave the subprime industry, though he expects those lend